How Safe is the Stock market in Kenya

Is there hope for shoked investors?

Nation Newspapers
By JOSEPH BONYO Posted Wednesday, February 18 2009 at 17:16

The safety of retail investors’ stocks in the equity market has once again come into sharp focus as Kenya comes to terms with a report revealing fraud involving brokers and investment firms.

Many people have been left wondering how safe their stocks are if those charged with safeguarding them can collude to rip off investors. The report is yet to be made public by the authorities concerned.

“It is startling and looks very bad if what we have read in the media is true. It begs the question of how safe our investments are. I may not have been at Nyaga, but who knows maybe my brokerage company is next,” observes Mr Eustace Ochieng, a retail investor.

The shocking contents of the forensic audit report on the fallen Nyaga Stockbrokers must have pierced through the hearts of many a retail investor.

Even more worrying is that the plight of investors has not been addressed as the effects of the revelation continue to sink in. Recently, Treasury developed cold feet after placing an alert to the effect that it would react to the report.

The NSE through chairman James Wangunyu has dismissed the findings while the Capital Markets Authority is yet to provide a substantive way forward.

The report seen by Money goes at length to describe how Nyaga Stockbrokers used its connections both at the Central Depository and Settlement Corporation (CDSC) and the Nairobi Stock Exchange to fleece investors.

It further sets out a series of laxities on the part of the capital markets regulator to act even when clear evidence had been brought against the broker.

Against all the orders, these are the institutions charged with safeguarding retailers’ investments. Therefore one wonders who to turn when these same institutions fail to perform their functions. According to the report, Nyaga using flaws within the laws failed to submit true records of its accounts to the CMA.

It is through this, that the forensic audit reveals, the massive rip-off of investor’s funds occurred. “The biggest differences are in bank accounts balance and in the clients accounts balances with the Broker Know client accounts showing a Sh1.3 billion net liability to clients and showing Sh1 billion in the accounts,” says the report.

It adds; “the management accounts submitted to Capital Markets Authority show a net receivable of Sh55 million and only Sh6 million in the bank accounts.”

Cuts across ranks

Stated in the report as a coalition to defraud the public the scheme, the report says, cuts across from junior officers who received bribes to facilitate forgery and senior managers who failed to use their position to stop the sheer theft.

The Nairobi Stock Exchange is also put on the spot for being ‘over protective of the managers at Nyaga. In addition to the evidence of false financial reporting, the audit carried out by Pricewaterhouse Coopers also spells out a carefully orchestrated scheme on individual clients accounts.

“This happened in a number of different ways depending on the suspect’s objective at the time,” it says. Among the tricks used by the brokerage house to defraud clients included uploading of the prices from the trade files to reflect profit. This happened in instances when client’s shares were sold without their authorisation and repurchased usually at a loss.

“Similarly, if during the period after the clients shares had been sold without authorisation any dividend was paid or payable, then an entry would be passed crediting the client with the dividends that they would otherwise have received had their shares been sold,” explains the audit.

When Money carried the story of investors with Nyaga almost one year ago, they told of their frustrations at the hands of the broker. Some of them displayed cheques that they had been issued with but bounced clearly indicating that the firm was in the red. Money caught up with them when they were lodging claims to statutory managers put in place by the CMA and NSE.

“I travelled all the way from Kisii hoping to be attended to and hopefully receive my refunds from Nyaga, however this seems not to be the case as they are only receiving claims,” complained one Miss Alice Ratemo.

Displaying a cheque allegedly issued by the stockbroker, she said all the other cheques amounting to Sh242,000 had bounced. The firm’s banker, Stanbic bank (currently CfC Stanbic) had indicated that the accounts had insufficient funds.

Investors were also to contend with paying fees charged on bouncing cheques that they were receiving. For bounced cheques presented, a fee ranging from Sh1,500 to Sh2,000 is charged by commercial banks.

“Already, I have been fined Sh6,000 for the four cheques I have received from the broker. I’m reliably informed that two more are at the bank awaiting my collection since their (Nyaga) account has no money,” said an investor who preferred we only use Karanja as his name.

Some of the cheques that were also allegedly sent to the investors were not signed hence could not be cashed. That the investors may go home with far less than what they originally put in may soon become a reality. This was first exemplified when NSE offered the stockbroker Sh100 million rescue package to “support investors who had bought shares through the firm.”

Shared cash

But according to the report, the money was allegedly shared between two investment banks. However, the two have denied the claim saying that the broker equally owed them. This begs the question as to whether they were also investors who had bought shares through the firm.

Although Mr Wangunyu, the NSE chairman has dismissed the contents of the report terming them naïve, what baffles most investors are his claims on the liability. He has been quoted in the press saying the liability is estimated at Sh300 million.

However, by the time the statutory managers were closing doors for investors to lodge claims, the liability stood at Sh800 million. That the company may find it hard to get back to business and possibly refund investors is not far from reality.

The report notes that the firm is highly insolvent and would require about Sh1.2 billion to come afloat. This compared to the Sh1.3 billion investors will be requiring from it still clouds the hopes of refunds.

But as if the Nyaga debacle is not enough, investors are still waiting for another report on Discount Securities Limited. The report already presented to the CMA by consulting firm KPMG is expected to reveal more on the firms activity said to be bordering on fraud.

Already, the NSE is on a south end drive, characterised by low investor participation. Although the trend is being linked to the global economic crisis, the contents of the report are bound to further kill investor appetite for the bourse.

jbonyo@nation.co.ke

http://www.nation.co.ke/magazines/money/-/435440/531958/-/item/1/-/14l4dbi/-/index.html

New Population Estimates for Kibera at 200,000 to 250,000

Study by Stephano Morras PhD
Title Mapping the unmapped
Department of Sociology and Social Research
Universita Degli Studi di Milano - Bicocca, Milano. Italy.
Download the study here

A new study conducted by a group of Italian Specialists led by Stephano Morras estimates the population of Kibera to be between 200,000 to 250,000. They do this by first calculating the estimates for Kianda Village which they find to be 15,219. They then extrapolate the results from Kianda’s population to arrive at the following conclusion:

Final note: Looking upon the data reported above and considering the type, dimension and distribution of the buildings observed in Kianda is typically the same in the whole of Kibera, it is possible to make a guess about the numerical dimension of its population. Considering that the area of Kibera is set between 2.3 to 2.5 square km, the total population living in the slum can be most likely estimated between 200,000 to 250,000.

I have re-looked at the abstract of this study and I am not convinced (I have not seen the full text though). I think that its problem lies with the methodology (It points to ethnographic methods), data analysis and ultimately the inferences. Goldthorpe J. H's book (2006, 2nd ed) entitled on sociology, numbers and the integration of research and theory speaks much about social research and its inferential problems owing to its qualitative nature and use of inferential logic. These researchers will have considerable difficulties to defend their results. The inference is certainly problematic. The researchers note about the informality of Kibera and the fact that its estimates are not official. The Kenya bureau of statistics in their Kenya Integrated Household Budget Surveys (KIHBS) and countless other studies show that the average household number in Kenya is 6 which is placed at 3.5 in Kianda by the Morras study. I am tempted to conclude that this study's inferences are flawed.

My opinion is that this study might suffer from; one a problem of data integrity and secondly non transparent inferential rules and hence not well defensible and third a non probabilistic sample (a probabilistic sample should be open, transparent and well codified). The abstract makes an indication of the use of Mills' classical methods of logic or Bullien's Algebraic inferential method or alternatively the use of truth tables to arrive at the inferences. The weaknesses of these methods is that they cannot deal with the issues of endogeneity, have no allowable degree of error, their inferences, their explanatory and predictive power are not robust to minor adjustments in variables.

The above problems are always experienced by case studies, ethnographic studies, qualitative or grounded studies. This study is an example of a "Grounded study." The study grounds itself in Kianda and using for example Mills' logic infers that Kibera's reality is grounded in the reality of Kianda. Ethnographic studies can only used to make inferences about the subject of study or its specific mechanisms (within effects) but have considerable difficulties to make general inferences. The problem of endogeneity would generate a pseudo solution or misleading solutions and conclusions. Cases where ethnographic methods would have fitted well would be in rare and transient phenomenons such as the post electoral violence, the financial bubbles, revolutions etc. By explaining the characteristics of the phenomenon, ethnographic and case studies help people to develop a better intuition about a particular phenomenon.

Other issues to look at in this research include the sampling issues (probabilistic or judgmental) , response rates, bias in selection and response and non response bias, interaction effects, the testable hypotheses and the scope of the study. The great problem from the inference above is what has been referred by Goldthorpe above as a homogeneity assumption i.e. grounding the inferences from the findings of the case study, which is a big problem.

I would be interested if Stephano would reply to my criticism. Maybe they will help me to undo the "population myth" belief that I have lived with for a long time. Secondly I agree with him on the fact that a million people is far too much but disagree on the 250,000 people.

Professor Kolodko’s “World on the Move”

Professor Grzegorz W. Kolodko

World on the Move

Year of Publication (forthcoming)

Publisher: Columbia University Publishers

“World on the move” has been referred to as an interdisciplinary tour de force because of its ability to transcend the confines of a single discipline and paradigm while addressing global economic development. Professor Gregorz Kolodko is able to maintain this unique approach towards world economic development as a result of his wide travels around the globe even to the most remotest corners of the universe. Apart from being a top world economist consulted by the World Bank and several international institutions, a leading scholar and a writer in economic development (visit www.kolodko.net) He also was the assistant Premier of Poland and its Finance minister and helped propel Poland to the European Union besides managing the difficult transition process from communism to a market economy.

This book "world on the move" begins by exploring the economic history of the world from before the 18th century to present extrapolating it to the future. China’s position before, during and after 18th century and its present position are studied. The giant leap backwards or the long slumber of China followed by a great and fast acceleration in a period of 30 years is expounded well. Are we now waiting for China to become the next economic super power? What does an economically strong China mean to the world?

The treatment of globalization is quite interesting. What comes out clear is that the world is getting more and more integrated and America’s planetary leadership is becoming a thing of the past. Accordingly the world without a global leader does not appear so appealing. The author writes The position of the USA in the 21st century can be compared to that of 17th century Spain, then the world super power..... We managed without Spain in this role, because England emerged as the global leader. The role of the Dollar is also explored. Accordingly, American leadership has left the world with no planetary institutional order and in a considerable state of chaos. In addressing the interdependence of the global system it gives account of how the ripple effects are experienced in a remote part of the world as a result of an event in another part of the world.

World on the move gives interesting insights into the future. Accordingly the first world will be an aging world. While populations will reduce in other parts of the planet, populations will also increase in other areas of the world. There will be attitude change on many issues such as the environment and there will be much closser gobal interractions. Air transportation will be faster "flight times from Moscow to San Franciso will be an hour and a half!" Robotics technology will be better "... there will be electronic sniffer dogs that can sniff better," communication will be effortless "there will be no need to write text messages or emails; just speak your thoughts to deliver them to your addressee" and bio matrix controls will be in use at borders of entry instead of passport controls "the touch of a finger or the gaze of your eye into the electronic device that watches us everywhere will be sufficient."

The book however ends with a caution that while others will have better lives others will plunge into poverty. It just makes me wonder whether the parts that will be plunging in poverty will be in Africa. Professor Kolodko has been a critique of the population trends in Africa. But maybe the book will answer my curiosity. I wonder too whether it provides insights on how the countries on the periphery may bring themselves to catch up with the countries on the core. But his comment in my in this blog on Africa's develoment debate answer this very well and I quote Yet while we are still far, far away from Afrique Paradis (see “World on the Mover”, or “Wędrujący świat”, Polish edition, p. 44), we are much closer to find an answer how African countries can be put on the path of fast growth and sustainable development. For this to happen the best way is to relay on coincidence theory of development and new pragmatism (ibidem, pp. 315-332). Kolodko (2004) is very persimistic on issues of catching up and advises that the catching up process should be discussed amongst near equals. Kolodko in Globalisation and catching up in emerging markets recognizes efforts by those willing to work hard giving Poland as an example. Countries that will go far are those that are willing to fight and overlook the global stumbling blocks such as what he referrers to as shock without therapy that the transition economies experienced when they had to change to market economies.

Certainly, I await for the book after passing through some of the content which were quite insightful. This a certainly a very rich book.

Visit www.kolodko.net for more information

Africa's Development Debate

I only wish Richard (comments 359 and 360) reads what I have to say about Africa’s prospects for development in the long-run in my last book on “World on the Move” when it will come in English later this year! I do agree that a decent development economist – and, for the same reason, any intellectualist dealing with Africa and her people – must exercise a holistic, or interdisciplinary approach. It is necessary to take into account the cultural dimension of economic growth and social development, which in Africa is as important as elsewhere. One good reason which has driven so much of my attention to the exciting case of Africa – both, in the elaborations in “World on the Move” and in my active traveling – has been the observation than in no other part of the world the culture and the nature are so closed to each other. And that factor must be taken into account by each and everyone researcher devoted to the quest for African development path.

There is not only a potential of such, what it convincingly stressed by Richard, but also true achievements. The average rate of GDP growth, accompanied by improvement of measures like the Human Development Index, in 2006-08 was exceeding 6 percent. It was even higher in sub-Saharan Africa, where – at 6.5 percent – it overcome the rate of growth in East Central Europe or in ASEAN. And such remarkable growth was not just an outcome of favorable commodity prices exported from Africa, but also a result of improving institutions, better quality of human capital and significance progress with governance. Yet while we are still far, far away from Afrique Paradis (see “World on the Mover”, or “Wędrujący świat”, Polish edition, p. 44), we are much closer to find an answer how African countries can be put on the path of fast growth and sustainable development. For this to happen the best way is to relay on coincidence theory of development and new pragmatism (ibidem, pp. 315-332).

Professor Grzegorz Kolodko

The Development Debate a Multi Dimensional Approach

The conventional growth literature looks at development in terms of improved welfare. In welfare economics we evaluate the effects of welfare changes by means of the indirect utility function (the consumer is worse off if indirect utility function at a later date is lesser than that of an earlier date [v(p1,w)

The international discourse of development is how do measure development. Real classical economists would want debates on development to center around issues like levels of investment, savings, consumption and production. All economic theories of development, follow this path. Development of course here is measured in terms of economic indicators such as ”GDP growth rate etc. However, these conventional means of defining and evaluating development has been put to test. For instance, when we say economic growth was attained at 5 %, you very well know that it is possible for ten people to make an economy grow to that level against a population of 30 millions. And then, how did we arrive to it!

So the new nomenclatures advanced by people like Stiligz and Sen is we do not have to explain development models in the sense of economic indicators. Other than asking, how much the economy grew, why not ask:
-how many boreholes of water were constructed
-how many children were able to access schooling opportunities
-how many hospitals were constructed
-how free were elections and did the voices of the poor reign
-are institutions properly constituted and is the rule of law upheld.

In some countries, people are beginning to ask how happy are the people (Gross Domestic Happiness). Greece uses this methodology to compute their economic growth? Bhutan’s great resource at the moment is the happiness of its people. It is assumed, people are only happy when then they have access to the basic needs. (you can think of many other humanistic indicators).

Hernandos De Soto discusses reasons why capital does not reproduce itself (the failure of capitalism) in advancing countries. His other book the other path discusses at length about a key feature of developing economies as seen in the informal sector. According to Hernandos a key solution or hindrance to the development problem is property rights. Gustavo Gutierez a Latin American theologian sees liberation as an end which requires the widest possible set of opportunities. Accordingly Gustavo suggests that we replace the term development with liberation. Development according to Gustavo is purely an economic concept and does little in considering the person as a psycho, social, religious and somatic person. Gustavo’s writings have had a lot of influence in Latin America and the Catholic Church in general. It is unfortunate that Gustavo was later silenced by the Catholic church and could no longer continue his writings on liberation theology.

Armatya Sen on the other hand developed the capability approach which focuses on the ability to do and to be which he calls functionings. Hence to Sen development is an end while the capabilities which are a set of functionings are the means. Key in the capability approach are the conversion factors which are the relationships between the state (means) and the ability to achieve certain beings and ends. One recent important contribution to the development literature is Prof. Grzegorz Kolodko who suggests the Integrated Index of Socio Economic Well Being (ZIP). Kolodko’s index looks at the output level in the economy measured by ppp per capita, the well being of the population (health, satisfaction, expectation and education), environment and leisure time (cultural values). The index in assessing development goes beyond the normal economics confinement and integrates other important factors.

Development as can be seen is not a function of GDP growth or decline per se. It is more. It incorporates many other inputs as can be seen from the Kolodko’s index (health, satisfaction, expectation and education) and other development experts. Countries therefore in their endervor to develop should ask themselves practical questions. On the other hand the question of big plans or small searches come to the lime light too. At times conventional assumptions may need to be relaxed or changed, omitted in search for a development answer.

What Advice Would Work in the Quest for Africa’s Development?

The following story (abit extended and exaggerated by me though) is quite interesting, later on I would like to link it to my argument in this blog. The rats were experiencing a great problem. There was a cat that was eating them, and they had lost many of their dear ones. Their greatest fear was that within no time, this cat would wipe out all the rats from the face of the earth. The rats then convened a great meeting known as the “Council of Rats of the World to Put an End to a Threat on Rats’ Lives Caused by a Greedy Cat.” In the council they invited world renowned consultants who discussed their problem at length. Some of the consultants were very ignorant with their situation, while others felt that they understood their problem. At the end of the great council several suggestions were arrived at as follow:

1. A meeting was to be convened between the rats and the cat so that they could help the cat to explore other types of food and leave the rats alone.
2. The rats were to develop a cage to put in the cat.
3. A loud bell was to be tied on the neck of the cat so that whenever he was around the rats would hear and run away.

All these suggestions were applauded for their novelty and the ability to save the lives of the rats. The problem with all these suggestion was the fact that they could not be accomplished because there was no volunteer among the rats to carry out any of the specific recommendations. So until today the rats are looking for volunteers among themselves for a reconciliatory meeting with the cat, the rats who would cage the cat and the ones to mount the bell on the neck of the cat. The cat on the other hand continues eating the rats.

The above situation is what the Sub Saharan Africa faces. William Easterly one of the development critics for Africa advocates for a search model. According to him Africa will only develop if it solves one problem at a time. Some of the books he writes such as the White Man’s Burden and the Elusive Quest for growth and many of his articles give Africa in a very bad and misserable picture. The search model is one of Easterly’s major contributions to the wider development economics, however it might not benefit the people to whom it is addressed to when he seems to have little or no respect for them. The other growth model which Easterly has developed is the “total factor productivity” as a great driver to economic development. Easterly is a brilliant non conventional scholar, but his great contributions could be overlooked because of the way they are presented. Jeffrey Sachs of the other hand looks at Africa’s development from a much more holistic view point. The paths he suggests have been dubbed as “big plans.” He suggests that the west should write of debts for Africa and dedicate part of their national incomes to help Africa come up. The same path seems to have been taken by Paul Coullier in his Bottom Billion (2007) where he suggests that Africa needs a mixture of interventions (sort of a Marshal Plan) such as trade, aid and military support.

The global economic development statistics paint a really gloomy picture for the Sub Saharan Africa region and the entire African Continent as a whole. The African continent’s total GDP contribution to the whole world is 6.8%. That of Sub Saharan Africa is 5.3%. When Nigeria and South Africa are removed from this group the total GDP of the remaining 42 countries add up to 2.8% of the global GDP. These statistics of course look miserable and scary. Other statistics show that the total cost Africa has incurred as a result of armed conflict since 1990 is USD 300 billion at 1990 ppp. The highest cost was incurred in Burundi from 1993 to 2005, followed by Rwanda in 1990 to 2001. Child mortality is about 180 children per 1000 live births. The proportion of the population living on less than USD 1 by 2004 was 40%. When it comes to deaths as a result of malaria, HIV/AIDS and many other diseases (many are imaginable) the picture is more scary. What the statistics would like to show is that “All Africans” will die soon because they all might be sick. Sometimes I wonder who is more sick is it the statisticians and their work or the Africans (just a loud thought). Pictures taken of Africa by development workers have one thing in common and that is to depict Africa as a land of idiots, foolish and primitive people. The “global development fashion” at the moment is to depict Africa as a continent with no hope and full of misery.

As an upcoming African development economist, I know that the contributions of other economists in this field matter a lot. However, the fact that many development economists have no respect but contempt, ridicule and pity for Africa contributes a lot in killing the esteem Africa has. Once the African listens to the jeers of at times very ignorant professors whose opinions are shaped by the literature available and hence draw all their conclusions from it, it makes it hard for the student to share his or her own perspectives to what is happening in the development debate. In any case the voices of many brilliant African economists have been quashed because they feel psychologically subdued by a world that would not listen to them but quashes and tramples upon them. At the same level even the African professionals are not taken at par with their global colleagues as they are considered to be inferior. Students too in diaspora can attest to the fact that the efforts to integrate in the host communities and be accepted as a merit student takes much effort.

My conclusion is that time for African intellectual to express what they believe to be the African Solution is now. There is so much richness to read and evaluate the suggestions from all other people of the world despite their attitude towards Africa. However let the Africans see the feasibility of the solutions provided from practical perspective. We should not care about the bad labels given to Africa (the people giving these labels are ignorant) but let us care about what can possibly contribute to the African solution. One of the great Kenyan spirits is “harambee” i.e. pooling together and this had done much to the development of Kenya. I really think, it has reached a time to meet global intellectual fire with soul force. Africa will one time develop and the economic prophets of doom will be shamed!

The Population Optimism and Development in Africa (Wild Thought)!

On the 12th of October 1999 the world population was officially at 6 billion. In the year 2013 it will reach7 billion and in the year 2054 it will be 9 billion and stabilize at 10 billion by 2200 according to the United Nations. Developing countries currently account for 80% of the global population. Asia accounts for 61% of developing world’s population driven by giants such as India and China. The global annual rate of population peaked at 2.04% p.a. in the 1960’s and declined to 1.33% by 1999. The population of the developing world is currently growing at a rate of 1.59. The most notable of the growth rates is Africa which exceeds 2.3% p.a., being the highest growth rate in any major area of the world.

My “wild” reflection focuses on Africa and its quest for development given the current annual growth rate of 2.3%. Many demographic writings a decade a go did not regard the high rates of population in poor countries a worrying matter. But this seems to have changed in the recent writings (Dasgupta 1993). Confronted with data (especially panel data from different countries-developed and developing), and depending on how they are proxied, the link between population and development is not unequivocal. As already advanced, population is a source of labor, it creates demand, it’s a source of savings and investment etc (off course, from a purely economistic point of view). On the hand, population causes a strain on the available resources, especially is a large part of it is ‘unproductive’, that is people who are not working and but are consuming- a typical example of most of the developing countries. Off course, as it is the case with the latter, if the population grows faster than growth (especially economic growth) then we expect a definite negative relationship between the two. Which brings in the issue of policy, that is, the need to develop policies that will ensure population growth is commensurate to growth.


The policies, according to Sen and others need to take care ‘initial conditions’. People are initially provided with capabilities, then (i) they are empowered with the ability to angage in productive activities, create more opportunities; (2) they are also empowered to make decisions about their relative sizes of their families (education is key functioning here). For the latter argument, another text writer, Micheal Todaro agrees with Sen that investing in human capital, especially education is the top priority to deal with this policy issue. Todaro reasons it very simply… for instance, a girl who has primary school education, is well empowered to plan her family….she understands the importance of trees as she will not go all over cutting them and educated farmers conserve the environment more than the uneducated ones. Todaro calls this as social benefits of education. Educated people too plan better the number of their families.


In summary, both population growth which is not accompanied by equal growth leads to poverty, which is a sign of underdevelopment. In resource economics issues of carrying capacity also play a major role. Seminal work on population includes Malthus (1798) essay on the principle of population and Boserup (1965) criticized Malthusian theory on the basis that it ignored the role of technological changes occasioned by population pressure, thereby reversing the Malthus argument that growing population would expand into more marginal land, and returns to labour would inevitably decline. Morrison shows that the industrial revolution helped the world break from this trap in 1800. Could the ever growing population be a blessing for Africa when productivity is very low and poverty levels are escalating? Isn’t this what happened in Asia? Is the problem in Africa the population or “the conditions” as spelt by Armatya Sen?

Social Economy and its Contribution to Economic Development in EAC

The Project

At the moment I am certain about what I want to do in my project. I will try to look at the extent to which the social economy can become a tool towards economic development of the East African Community using Kenya and possibly Tanzania as case studies.

I will do this through:

i. Measuring the extent to which the government has failed to provide basic services
ii. Measuring the extent to which the private sector has failed to provide market based solutions
iii. From the gaps generated above, I will then develop a market-service continuum to which I will try to fit the social economy. The effectiveness of the social economic actors will be judged upon their elasticity within the continuum.

How I will do all this:

Evolutionary economics provides one strong tool for this study. It has important theories which will help shape my study as I go along. Computational economics also will also provide a closer solution to my problem. In computational economics I could test my models by manipulating my variables in oder to develop clear intuition to the problems at hand and hence be in a position to come up with better predictions. This however still remains an area to be developed.

The data to be used:

The Kenya Bureau of Statistics census data 1969, 1979, 1989, 1999 and possibly 2009.
Kenya: Ministry of Culture and Social Sevices on CBO's.
Kenya: Ministry of Planning and National development: Reports and plans on development in the country.
WTO: Trade map, Market access map and investment map.
AU: Kenya Peer Review Mechanism Report 2006.
If resources are available, I would love to extend this study o other countries of East Africa.

Output
My ambitious project hopes in the long run to develop causal links between economic development and the social economy in East Africa.

Assistance Needed

Any one with a better idea or suggestion on this is welcome

Human Trafficking of Women and Children for Purposes of Sexual Exploitation in Kenya and Tanzania

Koinonia Advisory Research and Development Service (KARDS) through the help of CMC Netherlands, a mission support organization is conducting a study on human trafficking of women and children for purposes of commercial sexual exploitation.

The objectives of the study are:

1. To make an inventory of the faith based initiatives, NGOs, Civic associations and CBOs active in the fight against human trafficking of women and children for purposes of commercial sexual exploitation.
2. To know and understand what the needs of these organizations are in terms of financial needs, capacity building etc.
3. To assist actors in Kenya and Tanzania share experiences, skills and information in order to promote general networking and collaboration hence avoiding wastage as a result due to unintended duplication.
4. To stimulate interest to more organizations to join in the fight against human trafficking in the two countries.

The study will focus on what is already being done to prevent, offer social support, legal and judicial support, reintegrate or help the victims and survivors of trafficking in any way. Anyone interested in being part of this study should get in touch with KARDS through

richomuko@gmail.com or info@kardsafrica.org

before the end of March 2009. It is hoped that the study will be out by the end of May. Kindly circulate this information to as many organizations as possible in Kenya and Tanzania.

For further information about KARDS, kindly visit www.kardsafrica.org